[rfkuehn]

Power train is pretty much mild hybrid, PHEV, and pure BEV, in different horsepower setup.

Do you think SC factory will push out PHEV T6 along w/ T8? Same powertrain, just "tweaks" to ICE.

And oh, how about return to amber turn signals? There's a certain Euro-elegance to them, and the whole safety thing too. Even the bloody minivan has amber turn signals. Sheesh.

 

[rfkuehn]

The SC factory may build it but it is up to VCUSA to decide to sell in USA. Since they don't want V60 PHEV T6, I don't think they want to sell XC90 T6 PHEV here. The reason is simple, to sell more higher price T8.

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Yeah I saw the quote that basically said so when T6 PHEV was a no-go for USA. Still, if the goal is to go all-in PHEV + EV, I'd bet T6 PHEV would help drive volume.

Not a deal-killer for future shopping, but we really don't need 400 hp...

 

[rfkuehn]

XC100 is the way to go if you want soft close doors and more luxury stuff.

Assuming you can trust the clues in that EV plan image that was released recently, XC100 had a notably different hoodline compared to the others - kind of reminded me of the minivan.

Could it be some kind of genetic cross between XC90 and VW ID Buzz?

 

[rfkuehn]

Just stumbled on this article, they expect SPA2 XC90 to "land" later this year (reveal? launch?), and have a slightly different take on XC100.

https://www.just-auto.com/analysis/how-volvo-gets-to-electric-only-by-2030_id200773.aspx

 

[rfkuehn]

XC60 offers both PHEV - T6 and T8 - in other markets.

Design your XC60 Recharge | Volvo Cars International

 

[rfkuehn]

Apparently T6 vs. T8 PHEV is same twin charged + hybrid powertrain. They just tweak the engine a bit. We really won't need 400 hp when the time comes, would gladly trade a bit of output for more efficiency or hybrid range. I think EV range is the same in XC60, makes sense.

Thinking if SPA2 XC90 was launching this CY, we'd know it by now. Perhaps more likely that we'll see reveal late this year/winter 2022, then launch in spring-summer 2022 as MY23?

 

[rfkuehn]

Here's an article I just stumbled on for the first time:

Volvo electric car plans explained | CAR Magazine

Still puzzling on the graphic a bit (revised to reflect C40 reveal since the last time I saw it):
-- Significance of the three rows of vehicles, top to bottom?
-- Left-to-right sequence seems to be XC40, C40, XC90, XC20, XC60, 60-90 thing, XC100.

So what's the 60-90 thing? Maybe an aggregation of all existing wagons/CCs into something new that shoots the size gap? Return of XC70? See image here:

New Volvo coupe-SUV set to lead next-generation of brand's EVs | Auto Express

 

[rfkuehn]

That 60-90 thing appears to definitely be a sedan based on the shadow. In another forum, it was lined up with the presumed XC90 (from the same image). It was basically the same size if not slightly longer. Therefore I interpret it to be the next-generation S90.

I do not really believe there will be a SPA2 sedan.

I've done some precise measurements with the edge of my pen, I really have no idea what it is. But I'm going to bet on that Autoexpress image, it actually sort-of matches. Since 60-90 thing appears closer to XC90 in size vs. XC60, maybe its to be XC80? But thinking some kind of elevated wagon-thing, like the old XC70.

Long ago I posted here that Volvo should ditch sedans, reaction was incredulous. But I'm thinking no sedans go EV, at least not by mid-decade. Maybe they do get MH/PHEV on SPA2? But I think all other body styles get EV first.

 

[rfkuehn]

Sedan EV has better range than crossover and SUV. Most EV buyers want sedan for this reason. They can keep one or two sedan/coupe EV models for sure, small S40 and big long range S90. Precept is great but it is different style and price level.

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I wonder what S90 would look like if extrapolated from P*2? I just don't think it works w/ battery in the floor, at that scale. Remember the S60 CC? Hm.

2016 Volvo S60 Cross Country Test - Review - Car and Driver

 

[rfkuehn]

Remember, that image is just EVs by mid-decade. There could be other vehicles that don't go EV by mid-decade.

So I'll speculate that all V and V/CC's will consolidate into one lifted-wagon EV akin to that Auto Express image, call it XC70 or XC80, by mid-decade.

Similarly, maybe we'll see one consolidated S later in decade, maybe S70 or S80?

 

[rfkuehn]

There's another thread floating around, SPA2 will have modular skateboards for ICE/PHEV and EV. We'll see how that might alleviate compromises between them.

Figure "SPA3" lands ~2030 and is all-in EV?

 

[rfkuehn]

Interesting note is that we'll not see XC90 SPA2 revealed this year, but in 2022, presumably launching in 2H 2022 as MY23?

"...next generation models, based on the forthcoming SPA2 modular vehicle architecture. The first car featuring this SoC is the next generation Volvo XC90, which will be revealed next year."

 

[rfkuehn]

I think its going to stay pretty quiet until SPA2 announcements begin - including their EV versions. I think we'll see XC90 SPA2 in winter 2022 for launch in fall as MY23. Then other SPA2 and EV vehicles will follow.

My biggest question remains why Volvo skipped "conventional" hybrid, as Toyota/Lexus have been doing for a long time. There's a big whitespace between mild hybrid (glorified stop-start + e-push) and PHEV. If Toyota (and soon, incl. Lexus new TX) can offer vehicles starting as conventional hybrid, why couldn't Volvo? Seems to me that's a far more impactful place to start vs. MHEV. But at this point, I expect most investment will be for EV, with some refinements to PHEV.

 

[rfkuehn]

It is very costly to build a new power train but sell only a small volume. If you want Toyota hybrid, have to get the e-cvt from Toyota too. 8AT won't work that way. The fuel save is also tiny. This is why only Ford did it other than Toyota. And still Ford hybrid Escape doesn't sell much.

If your point is that 4x hybrid/EV powertrains don't add up, I agree.

But I do think Volvo shouldn't have bothered w/ MHEV, barely a half-measure. Should have gone standard conventional hybrid instead, even just to save all those restarts in congestion. Just today I was alongside an XC60 in some congestion. I counted about a dozen restarts in 10 min (MHEV won't prevent those). If that was an RX (conventional) hybrid, likely wouldn't have restarted at all.

 

[rfkuehn]

Start/stop has nothing to do with MHEV and XC60 today doesn't have MHEV power train. It is a plain T5/T6.
You are shooting the wrong target.

Even for this annoying start/stop feature, it is helpful to reduce emission at traffic lights. It is just not possible to be implemented perfectly without human knowledge of the road condition. A wise driver could easily disable it in crawling traffic by swinging the shift stick to manual for just a second.

MHEV is simply glorified stop-start with a bit of e-push. Can't move one inch without ICE restart. What's hard to follow there?

Toyota has had more capable hybrid tech since long ago, and seemingly hasn't bothered to backtrack with MHEV 48v. It will be interesting how Lexus TX lands, e.g. 500h. I think it will blow open the big gap that Volvo has caused itself re: conventional hybrid.

Whether TX offers PHEV is another matter, I suspect not initially. And I will prefer a plug when our shopping time comes in a couple years.

 

[rfkuehn]

stop-start is just something you can still disable on MHEV car. You tie them up together for no reason. Fuel saving can still come from coasting with the tiny motor, eg, while engine stopped at unnoticeable moments.

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My point is that conventional hybrid can advance the vehicle short distances/slow speeds. MHEV can't budge the vehicle, so in my mind that's effectively 48v stop-start.

MHEV does have what I call e-push, but it won't save you ICE restarts in congestion. Release the brake, and it starts. Conventional hybrid also less disruptive as ICE restarts once underway at speed.

 

[rfkuehn]

Volvo will never make cheap EV like the size and price of Mustang Mach E or model 3. You need to look elsewhere if you expect to buy EV at similar price and size of ICE Volvo today. An EV in size and luxury level of XC90 or XC60 will be more expensive than XC40 P8.

Volvo is saying EV will be half of the production 5 years from now. I don't see how it is possible with the much higher EV price (15K to 20k more than ICE cars) though.

How do you think pricing for XC90 SPA2 EV vs. PHEV will compare? What's more costly, 2nd power train or big battery!

 

[rfkuehn]

It is actually in development! As more european countries has started to stop supporting PHEV vehicles (and diesel). Full HEV and BEV are the next hot seller for all the european brands.

Now that's really interesting. Any details you can share re: timeline? Anticipated for USA?

I wonder if it might be too late for full/conventional hybrid, but if rules are changing then maybe not? I have long thought the correct investment priorities should have been full/conventional HEV and EV. MHEV is borderline useless compared to long-standing Toyota/Lexus hybrid tech, and PHEV is high complexity and high cost w/out subsidy. (That said, we'll still be interested in PHEV ~MY24.)

Per FusionRedXC60, "It is very costly to build a new power train". So what gets chopped/delayed to free up resources?

Europe climate group calls for end to subsidies for plug-in hybrid cars | Reuters

The European Union's Electric Vehicle Dilemma | Seeking Alpha

"Such a move to phase-out PHEV on the road by 2025 would practically kill demand and eliminate supply, many major OEMs had been expecting to sell PHEV for the rest of the decade as the lack of public infrastructure in charging is not yet suited for an accelerated push to BEV."

 

[rfkuehn]

It seems to me that Volvo lost a huge opportunity. Of course, their one-ICE-strategy was courageous and right, but then they bet big on PHEV instead of BEV. They missed the opportunity to be ahead of the competition by building lots of BEVs. Now they are again just an average car manufacturer because the competition has just as many or even more BEVs in their portfolio. And that's not going to improve during the next two years where they won't even release any new vehicles. Yes, they can advertise on fighting climate change and blah blah, but they aren't exactly forerunners in that area. They're rather pretending to be.

Yes I share some of your sentiment.

Volvo bet on PHEV & MHEV, with EV lagging. And disregarded Full HEV (akin to Toyota/Lexus).

They should have gone all-in on Full HEV and then EV. Perhaps there would have been synergies for PHEV? Certainly MHEV is a waste of time. But I'm sure its cheaper than Full HEV, so there's that.

 

[rfkuehn]

SPA2 power train is not much exciting. More battery capacity and HP on ERAD is what I expect.

I think I read/heard SPA2 battery will land ~18-19 kWh?

Re: ERAD, I hope more HP doesn't cause a new round of explosions. I'd prefer bulletproof w/ same HP, even less.